Mobarok Hossain
April 25, 2024
Overview Spot Gold (XAU/USD) has resumed its higher-timeframe bearish trend following a rejection at the 4,188.27 resistance level (0.618 Fibonacci retracement). Price action has broken below the lower boundary of an ascending corrective channel (bear flag), signaling an impulsive continuation leg targeting weekly liquidity.
0.618 Fibonacci Rejection: The corrective bounce off recent swing lows stalled precisely at 4,188.27, creating a clear lower high below overhead supply blocks.
Bear Flag Breakdown: The loss of the ascending channel support and breakdown below 4,139.20 confirms market structure continuation to the downside.
Weekly Low Test: Immediate downside momentum targets the key structural Weekly Low at 4,013.29 (1.0 Fibonacci projection).
Extended Downside Projections: A breakdown below 4,013 opens structural expansion toward 3,927.85 (1.414 Fib extension) and 3,885.75 (1.618 Fib extension).
Trigger: Retest and rejection around broken channel support / 4,139.20 – 4,188.27.
Take Profit 1: 4,013.29 (Weekly Low)
Take Profit 2: 3,927.85 (1.414 Fib)
Take Profit 3: 3,885.75 (1.618 Fib)
Invalidation: A 1H candle close back above 4,188.27 invalidates the immediate breakdown count.
Traders should monitor retests of the broken bear flag for short continuation opportunities targeting the major weekly support at 4,013.29 and the deeper Fibonacci extensions down to 3,885.75.
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
