Mobarok Hossain
April 25, 2024
Overview Spot Gold (XAU/USD) has completed an Elliott Wave 5-impulse sequence within a downward channel, pushing price down to the 4,131.793 level. Following the loss of key structural support at 4,300 (Market Structure Shift / MSS), order flow remains heavily bearish on higher timeframes. However, current market structure suggests a short-term relief rally into overhead supply before the primary downtrend resumes toward key liquidity targets.
Impulsive Wave (v) Completion: The sell-off from the high featured a complete 5-wave motive structure, with internal sub-waves (i) through (v) terminating near current price levels (4,131.793).
Market Structure Shift (MSS): The breakdown below 4,300 shifted the medium-term bias firmly to the downside, establishing current rebounds as corrective retracements.
Overhead Sell Zone: The primary area of supply for short setups aligns between 4,238.377 and 4,272.172.
Downside Liquidity Target: The long-term projection for the next downward leg targets the major structural level at 3,942.255.
Primary Scenario (Bearish Continuation):
Relief Leg: Allow price to complete a corrective retracement from current levels (4,131) into the 4,238.377 – 4,272.172 sell zone.
Trigger: Bearish rejection candlestick confirmation on lower timeframes inside the sell block.
Target: 3,942.255
Invalidation: A sustained close above 4,272.172 invalidates the immediate lower-high setup.
Traders should remain patient and avoid taking short positions at lower channel boundaries. A retracement into the 4,238.377 – 4,272.172 sell area offers a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity targeting 3,942.255.
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
