Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) Wedge Compression & 4,228 Supply Retest Setup

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) Wedge Compression & 4,228 Supply Retest Setup

  • user-icon Mobarok Hossain
  • date-icon April 25, 2024

Overview Spot Gold (XAU/USD) is undergoing price compression inside the 4,132.733 – 4,153.491 demand block. The 1-hour chart displays a falling wedge pattern alongside a local Market Structure Shift (MSS), signaling an impending expansion move toward overhead supply before resuming its broader structural trend.

Technical Breakdown & Key Levels

  • Demand Zone Compression: Price action has stalled between 4,132.733 and 4,153.491, building liquidity inside a tight consolidation range.

  • Market Structure Shift (MSS): Lower timeframe candles are attempting a bullish shift out of the wedge structure.

  • Primary Upside Target (4H Supply): A successful breakout above 4,153.491 opens a clear path toward the 4,228.964 resistance zone.

  • Higher Overhead Supply (4H Zones): Extended resistance zones reside at 4,250 – 4,260 and 4,280 – 4,310 (Last 4H Zone).

  • Downside Expansion Target: A bearish rejection at 4,228.964 shifts bias back to overall trend continuation toward 4,080.00.

Trade Scenarios & Action Plan

Scenario 1: Bullish Relief Move (Short-Term)

  • Trigger: Acceptance and 1H candle close above 4,153.491.

  • Target: 4,228.964

  • Invalidation: Sustained breakdown below 4,132.733.

Scenario 2: Bearish Trend Continuation (Primary)

  • Trigger: Bearish rejection candlestick confirmation inside the 4,228.964 supply block.

  • Downside Targets: 4,132.733 (TP1) and 4,080.00 (TP2 / Liquidity Sweep).

Conclusion

Traders should monitor the 4,132.733 – 4,153.491 region for breakout confirmation. While a short-term bounce toward 4,228.964 remains favorable, the broader focus remains on evaluating short setups upon testing key overhead supply.

Disclaimer: This analysis is provided strictly for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.