Impact of Core CPI m/m USD News: Possible Situations and Important Elements The US dollar and, by extension, the USD/JPY pair might be greatly impacted by the January 11, 2024, release of the US Core CPI m/m data, which measures the month-to-month change in the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy. Below is a summary of potential outcomes and important things to think about:
Impact of Core CPI m/m USD News: Possible Situations and Important Elements
The US dollar and, by extension, the USD/JPY pair might be greatly impacted by the January 11, 2024, release of the US Core CPI m/m data, which measures the month-to-month change in the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy. Below is a summary of potential outcomes and important things to think about:
Potential Scenarios:
According to expectations: Since the market has already factored in this expectation, the impact on the USD may be neutral if the Core CPI m/m comes in around the predicted 0.3%.
Greater than anticipated: If the figure is higher than 0.3%, it may indicate ongoing inflationary pressures, which would lead the Federal Reserve to contemplate raising interest rates more aggressively.
This might make the USD stronger relative to other currencies, such as the JPY, and raise the USD/JPY rate.
Less than anticipated: A figure below 0.3% may allay worries about inflation and possibly open the door for the Fed to raise interest rates more gradually. This might make the JPY stronger and the USD weaker, which would lower the USD/JPY ratio.
Important Things to Think About:
Market Expectations: Keep an eye on how the market is interpreting economic data and analyst projections before the data is released. A notable departure from the norm could have more of an effect than the reading itself.
Federal Reserve Policy: How the market responds to the Core CPI data will be greatly influenced by the Fed's views on inflation and the trajectory of its upcoming rate hikes.
Global Economic Conditions: The market's response to the data may also be influenced by broader economic factors, such as geopolitical unrest and hopes for global growth.
Trading Approach:
Cautious Approach: It could be wise to hold off on making any big trades until you get confirmation of the market's response, considering the possibility of volatility.
Traders with a direction: If you are predicting the impact of the data, before taking long or short positions, think about seeking technical confirmation.
Risk management: Regardless of your trading technique, always use suitable stop-loss orders to reduce any losses.
Notice: This analysis is not intended to be financial advice; rather, it is provided for informational reasons only. Before deciding what to buy, please do your own research and speak with a licensed financial counselor.