On Wednesday, January 10, 2024, the USD/JPY pair reached the critical resistance level of 145.00, continuing its bullish run for the third day in a row. perhaps if bulls appear to be in control, a number of technical indications point to the possibility of consolidation or perhaps a reversal before more advances.
On Wednesday, January 10, 2024, the USD/JPY pair reached the critical resistance level of 145.00, continuing its bullish run for the third day in a row. perhaps if bulls appear to be in control, a number of technical indications point to the possibility of consolidation or perhaps a reversal before more advances.
Upward Trend: The overall trend remains bullish, with the price action forming higher highs and higher lows since October 2023.
Moving Averages: There is still bullish momentum as seen by the higher slope of both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 67.62, the index is overbought, indicating a possible correction or consolidation prior to additional higher.
MacD and Stochastic Oscillator: These indicators are still bullish, but they are slowing down, which could mean that a period of sideways movement is approaching.
Important Resistance Levels:
145.00: This psychological state and previous network of support have grown to be a major source of resistance. A breach above might indicate additional positive momentum in the direction of 146.00 and higher.
146.00: The peak from October 2023; achieving this mark would indicate a significant bullish breakout and would lead to additional buying pressure.
Key Support Levels:
143.00: If the rally slows down, this level could serve as a floor. It previously offered support during the most recent decline.
142.00: A breach of this mark may indicate a change in trend and open the door for additional declines towards 140.00.
Upcoming News:
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures for the 13th of January, Friday: While a negative employment report could stifle the surge, a strong one could boost the dollar and drive the USD/JPY higher.
January 18 figures from the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) show that higher-than-expected inflation may weaken the euro and favor the USD/JPY inadvertently.
Trading Approach:
Bullish Traders: Before taking long positions, think about holding off until there's a break above 145.00, supported by other technical indications. Aim for 146.00 and 148.00, placing stop losses below 143.00 if necessary.
Neutral Traders: Exercise caution and hold off on opening any positions until the market has more clarity. Consolidation or a retreat may be possible, as indicated by the overbought RSI and the likelihood of data releases.
Bearish Traders: If the price drops below 143.00 and bearish signs on technical indicators corroborate the drop, you might want to consider taking short positions. With stop-loss positions over 145.00, aim for the 142.00 and 140.00 levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to be financial advice; rather, it is provided for informational reasons only. Before deciding what to buy, please do your own research and speak with a licensed financial counselor.
Recall that the market is fluid and subject to sudden changes. Always employ appropriate risk management strategies, and modify your trading plan as necessary.